Telecom service providers are facing a tough time amidst falling margins, price war, entry of 3G and impending Mobile Number Portability (MNP).
Indian telecom industry has come a long way from the days of monopoly till the early 1990s and has evolved into a vibrant market. Today, it is one of the fastest growing markets in the world, both in terms of manufacturing and services, and has become one of the primary drivers of economic development. It has emerged as the second largest global telecom market. Indian telecom market has witnessed an infrastructure rollout of a magnitude, not seen in the global economy for a long time. For instance, one of the biggest telecom players has installed, in the past 12 months, as much network as Germany did in the past 15 years.
The miracle growth of the sector resembles the rolling out of highways in the 1950s in the US. It has shown massive upsurge in recent years and has evolved as one of the most competitive industries in the world. Estimates indicate that India is currently adding 8-10 million mobile subscribers every month. According to the data from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), the total telecom subscriber base of India stood at 653.92 million by the end of May 2010, with the overall teledensity reaching 55.38%. World Bank estimates indicate that every 10 percentage point increase in mobile penetration produces 0.81% economic growth. The spread of telecommunication in the rural India has boosted access to healthcare and other essential services. Following the mobile telephony revolution, one in every two Indians owns a mobile phone and top mobile players like Bharti, Reliance and Vodafone boast of a subscriber base of over 100 million each.
A shakeout round the corner?
The current situation of below par profitability and the continuation of detrimental prices for a sustained period of time will jeopardize the entire industry. Analysts say that an industry shakeout is needed and is bound to happen too. The impending question is—How long will it take? “Very soon,” says Sanjay Kapoor, CEO of Bharti Airtel. He believes that “The Indian Government’s recent auction of radio airwaves for 3G wireless services could bring in the much-needed change. That is because Indian companies and their investors will now be more aggressively focused on recouping the massive investments they have made in buying 3G spectrum in the recent past.”
The current trends indicate that companies will have to raise prices to survive in the immediate future. Sanjay Kapoor expects the 14 odd wireless companies in India to be cut down through mergers and business failures. There is enough place for only three profitable wireless operators in India. The much-awaited 3G spectrum allocation along with other things may act as the much-needed catalyst for consolidation in the industry. As most players have already spent huge amounts, it is natural that they expect commensurate returns. If tariffs continue to fall, the situation could become worse. Then the industry could witness a shakeout sooner than later, as the industry is now at a critical juncture.
Spectrum scarcity
The regulatory system that boosted the telecom revolution in the country now finds itself accused of trying to kill the goose that laid the golden eggs. Industry experts blame that the government’s serious policies in the recent past have led to an influx of new entrants and a decision to sell spectrum cheaply to newcomers.
A leading investment research firm referred to the government policy actions as ‘regulatory basketcasery’. Similarly, another firm said, “If you were looking for emerging market exposure to mobile growth, India was probably not a great choice as the market is in a competitive mess and its regulations grow more capricious and nonsensical by the day.”
Consolidation Bells
Over the last couple of quarters, the revenues of 15 operators have actually been disappointing. The customers’ acquisition growth does not necessarily translate into more minutes or use or into more money. Marten Pieters, CEO, Vodafone Essar, suggests, “The business model in India needs to drive on scale. That is the only thing in this market because the tariffs are about 10% of the Vodafone Group’s per minute tariff in Europe. We get about 10% of that in India. So, how can we survive on that? This is because we are creating scale. So, every operator needs to get to a certain level of scale and then it is sustainable.”
With the call rates having reached ultra low levels and are still falling, experts argue that consolidation is the only long-term solution. A recent government sponsored report on the industry concluded that the market in India is overcrowded and should be encouraged to conform to the global standard of around four to six operators per region. Presence of too many players has reduced economy of scale and is making it more expensive to invest in expansion of networks into rural areas.
Despite the leaps and bounds of telecom over the last 15 years, only 25% rural population has a mobile phone. Therefore, the need of the hour is to allow the market to determine the optimum number of players in the sector. Industry observers suggest that if the government can keep policy on a steady course and release more spectrum, then the sector could begin to recover its margins.
Jany, Lead Economist
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